I am sitting here in bed on Sunday morning, drinking coffee and thinking about odds. Specifically, the odds of the United States surviving as a democracy, and of our species surviving late stage capitalism, or, for that matter, any advanced life surviving.
As I write these words they are flat across the page. They sound matter of fact. You, dear reader, can’t see the rage welling up in every cell in my body.
I could not find the actual odds of either of these things. Maybe the odds makers haven’t gotten around to it. Or maybe there is no money in it.
So I am going to take a wild ass guess. This is not scientific but it is based on analytical reasoning.
As to the rise of American theocratic fascism, I think the odds are two to one against saving the republic.
Why? Because an unholy alliance of white nationalists, evangelicals, one percenters, garden variety racists, and a number of rank opportunists, have been chomping at the edges for at least 40 years.
They vote in lock step. There message is simple, visceral, and effective. And they are using the mechanisms of representative democracy to destroy it.
They have the courts, especially the Supreme Court. They have the media. They control congress through the filibuster even when out of power. And they have gotten two completely unqualified presidents seated, despite both of them losing the popular vote.
They have successfully stalled any legislation that would have protected the next election from the suppression and gerrymandering they already have in place.
The situation is dire. We noticed too late that they are at their end game. I give us a one in three chance of stopping them and restoring liberal democracy.
But there is another story line in play, one that will affect the outcome for the American experiment. And is actually more dire.
The capitalist driven ecocide and climate collapse. I give us 20% chance of a positive outcome for us and the other 3 trillion species sharing this miracle of life on earth.
But there is still a chance and one worth giving our last measure of breath to ensure. One chance in 5 that something shifts so profoundly that we see a remaking of the human experience occur in a short 10 year span. We are on the brink and have no time to spare.
This moment has been noted as an inflection point by several of our great thinkers extant.
What that must mean, if it is to mean anything at all, is a change so basic and deep and rapid as to make our world unrecognizable. Others have called this “the Great Turning”.
Turning a herd of 8 billion is no small undertaking. But the threat of extinction should be motivational.
Reality won’t hit till the food trucks stop coming.
4 chances in five, we extinct ourselves, taking the rest with us and leaving a dead ball of rock.
One chance in five we initiate a golden age with a healthy biosphere at the center, and tolerance, freedom, and prosperity for all of us.
We still have a choice.