The Guardrails

A Shifting Sand

I first published this on January 27, a week in to the regime. As we know, the authoritarian cancer is fast-moving. When I first wrote it a LOT of people in the media and elsewhere were sanguine as to our ability to control the situation. Some are still peddling the “guardrail” theory. Many have altered their viewpoint and language. I am not suggesting we give up. Just be aware of the true circumstances and adjust our strategies as needed. Here is an update, followed by the original piece.

UPDATE: April 11, 2025

The case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a LEGAL immigrant with NO criminal ties, the husband of an American citizen and father of a young child, kidnapped by ICE and rendered to a notorious concentration camp in El Salvador, without the due process afforded him by law.

The regime admitted it was a “clerical error, but said they had no way to retrieve him. A lie.

It went to court and they were given a deadline to bring him home. They appealed to the Supreme Court, and in a rare burst of judicial competence, the court sided with the lower court and upheld the deadline. In an almost unheard of 9-0 decision they ruled that Garcia must be retrieved.

Now—here is the important thing to know now. The DoJ is REFUSING to obey an order of the Supreme Court. This is what I predicted back in November. Congress and the SCOTUS are both essentially useless, but when they do grow a spine, the regime simply ignores them. And who can make them comply with the rule of law? There are NO GUARDRAILS!

January 27, 2025:

We are hearing a bunch from the left wing intelligentsia about reclaiming our power and about the guardrails that will, ultimately, protect us. But I believe the reclaiming of democracy will be much harder than is being portrayed, and the guardrails are already too weak to hold.

Why do I believe this? Because we already have experience with this. The years between 2017 and 2021.

How well did the guardrails hold up then?

Remember the wall, the children in cages, the grift, the silencing of the press, the suppression of dissent, the 30,000 lies? Remember the Muslim ban? Remember him holding an upside down bible outside a church for a photo op while siccing armed military on American citizens? Remember George Floyd and the events that followed as the entire right wing attacked AMERICAN cities they thought were “too blue”?

Remember how the ideologically captured senate rammed through the rapist alcoholic, Brent Kavanaugh? And then rammed through Amy Coney Barrett DURING a national election and while Justice Ginsberg’s body was still warm?

We can lay a million Covid dead on his doorstep and all the while they fomented violent division in the country over masking and vaccines. This is still causing disease to spread, though it is not generally fatal now. I could go on, but it would require a fat book and it all blurs together when we stare too long into that particular abyss.

There were two impeachments. One for trying to bully the president of Ukraine into dirtying up Joe Biden, the presumptive 2020 nominee at the time. The other for his final act while in power—a violent coup attempt.

If you look over the list of law-breaking, abuse of power, and severe malfeasance, you will note one thing—he has not been successfully called to account for any of it.

None of this happened in a vacuum. They were able to steal the 2016 election, with help from a hostile foreign power and through the same institutional rigging that allowed them to do it again last November. It was all laid out in the suppressed Mueller report. In Trump-1, as now, it was a consortium of sycophants and fortune seekers. But the real locus of power were the oligarchs, some of them not even Americans. And they did it again two months ago without so much as an objection from the cowed Democrats.

I don’t believe that this one man is running the show. He is carrying out an agenda that serves a group of hardened and ruthless operatives of great wealth. It is happening all over the world, but the United States is the jewel in the crown.

I understand why the pundits on the left want to believe that we still have time and wiggle room. I understand why we hear the slogan “resist” everywhere in blue circles. But how has it played out? It is true that the MAGA were not able to raise their figurehead to the level of dictator during Trump-1. But that is about all.

January 20, 2021 should have been the last of it. He should have been prosecuted and gone to prison, and Joe Biden should have had a mandate. Instead, with a great deal of help from a venal corporate press, none of that happened. Instead the MAGA continued to consolidate the base.

And seize power once again in 2024. If anything we did in resistance had worked this never could have happened.

The difference this time is that there are NO counter-balancing voices. No Pence to refuse to overturn the next election, if there is one. Absolutely nothing to stop them. They have the trifecta. One clue is what happened in the Hegseth and Noem confirmations. Does anyone really think that Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth are better than Barr and Giuliani? Are ANY of his picks now superior in any way than last time?

I am not suggesting passivity or saying we should give up. But if we don’t understand the enemy we can’t beat them. What I see is a lot of people overestimating the power of the word “resist” and underestimating the actual power of the executive branch, congress, and the supreme court, all operating in lock-step. Donald Trump could die tomorrow and the show would go on.

What I am looking for is actual plans to stand against them, whether in the shadows or in broad daylight. I want to hear something beyond the instuction to “tell the government what we want”, by writing emails or calling. Something more concrete than telling us to connect with out communities.

The politicians that have the power to help don’t CARE what we want, and the ones that care may make a stink but do not have the power to stop the others.

As for connecting with community, yes, of course. Then what?

During the election we heard a great deal about the dire consequences of the MAGA regaining power. We heard about Project 2025 and about how the Big Oil and other extractive industries will bring on the climate armageddon. We were warned that this is an attempt at a fascist takeover and the end of a free America. All of this as an attempt to warn voters and keep them out by winning.

But when the dust cleared on November 6th, all we have heard since is how much power we the people have to influence what comes next. How does that make sense? If these were real dangers, and we all know they are, the MAGA seizing power does not vitiate the threat, but rather brings it to pass.

And, in fact, they are rolling out the 2025 playbook. They are breaking America. They are bringing chaos, fascism, and the degradation of the infrastructure and environment. As promised.

It is true that many of the current flurry of dire orders and initiatives will be challenged in court. But the MAGA have already infiltrated the court system and much will stop there. Note Judge Canon. The rest will go, eventually to a bought off and packed supreme court. The same court who already gave the sitting president, now Donald Trump, carte blanche. Even the most sanguine left wing pundits admit winning there is a long shot. What else do ya got?

One thing I have seen is practical information on dealing with ICE. We can sound the alarm if we see them so the vulnerable can run. That is the kind of thing I am thinking of. Can we hide immigrants in our attics? In this dystopian replay of the late 30s in Germany this is not a silly question.

Other practical ideas are food security projects and other survival initiatives. We can’t fight if we are starving. What idea do you have for real resistance, even if it seems small? Please do comment.