The Art of Prediction

How I Reach My Conclusions on Current Events

How I reach my conclusions: By using logic to extrapolate out from whatever the circumstances are at a given moment. I look at the preponderance of the evidence. What has actually occurred up till now. I place it in historical context if I am aware of similar things that have happened before.

In this case, that involves carefully addressing the news of the day. The historical context is clear to anyone who has studied the Third Reich.

Because new things are always happening, providing new data, the prediction is in motion. It shifts day by day as this unfolds.

At this juncture the Regime is winning. The actions they have taken have broken things and people. They have exactly the personnel in place that they wanted. They are moving forward.

I am not saying we have not had positive moments. We brought 5.5 million people out of their houses onto the streets, many of whom had never protested anything before. Cory Booker's marathon was a sight to behold. Senator Van Hollen pushed through and SAW Mr. Garcia, proving that he is at least alive. Bernie and AOC are filling arenas. Harvard and other Universities are refusing to comply. Judges are issuing orders of contempt of court.

But the Senator was unable to wrest Mr. Garcia from the grip of CECOT. There are over 250 OTHERS also deprived of due process in that concentration camp. And the flights are continuing, in defiance of the court. The Regime's "Counter-terrorism Czar" is threatening to charge every person who has spoken out for Garcia with aiding and abetting. A charge which would never stick under a rule of law that no longer exists. But that means little now.

The Regime is IGNORING court orders and congress is either complicit or has not found the will to resist as a body.

It is known that citizens are not safe from the juggernaut. MORE concentration camps are being built, enough room for a small city. The intention is to kidnap anyone they don't like. Talk of martial law is in the air and it is not idle chatter.

The fabric of the Federal Government, the parts of it carefully designed over a couple of centuries to serve the people, is in tatters. The economy is suffering, inflation in expectation of foolhardy tariffs is running amuck, and the agencies that protect our money are being chipped away at. The insider trading/tariff scam put the markets in a tailspin.

And every one of our traditional allies has been alienated. Canada is preparing for war, and likely Denmark and Panama too. It is well known that abusers isolate their victims. We are being isolated.

The only terrorism we, the citizens, are suffering is state sponsored. By OUR OWN rogue federal government. We are afraid of being kidnapped and sent to hell on earth. We are afraid the money we need to live will stop coming, not because the treasury is broke, but because it is being robbed. We fear starvation and homelessness. We fear being murdered by the Regime.

Right now I am watching the situation in El Salvador. I am watching DOGE. I am watching the reaction of the Regime to the court orders. I am watching for an invocation of the Insurrection Act, followed by martial law. I am watching what happens to the universities and law firm and others that have pushed back.

The actual events in each of these instances will inform any prediction for the future. It will depend on who caves, and what the result is when they do. Or, if nobody caves, who wins the stand-off.

There are other big protests planned, but a lot of people heard that number of 3.5% and think it is a magic token. If you read the entire thing, it says MAY be enough to restore democracy--not WILL BE. It has been the case a bit under 50% of the time. Obviously, adding more people to the resistance is good. But there is no magic beanstalk.

Because this is a story with no ending yet, it is still malleable. How much so is unknown. My hope is for a sustained general strike and simultaneous sustained general boycott. These actions are safer than mass street actions and more effective. The system has betrayed us. We do not need to give it our labor or our money.

This will require a massive organization and SOLID mutual aid. Poor people work so we can eat and keep the lights on. People buy from big corporations because we need various things and this is the system that exists now.

A successful action of this kind would require the needs of those striking be met. And a general boycott would require that we reframe our needs and weed out the consumer bloat.

Will this actually happen? I have, of course, no way of knowing. But if it does I will revisit my prediction of likely outcomes.