Collapse

How it Happens—How We Survive

Do you have a plan for collapse? I am not talking about being a true prepper, living out on the edge with 5 years of supplies, a large armory, and a plan to blow the main road if things get hairy.

I am just thinking of what you and yours would do if something big and bad happened, whether societal or natural.

Not nearly enough people have any plan at all. Some have already experienced disruption and are now getting serious about this.

What Form Will the Threat Take?

Here Are Some Possible Dangers/Harms

Shortages of necessary goods due to supply chain issues.

True shortages due to crop failures, water system failures or depletion, mineral depletion, and other pressures.

Local or widespread political violence falling short of civil war.

Actual civil war.

A fascist takeover that interferes with the distribution of resources and with societal norms.

Climate driven natural disasters that don’t require immediate relocation, such as floods.

Climate driven events that do require immediate relocation such as wet bulbs that cause death.

An influx of refugees into your locale, whether these are climate refugees, war refugees, or economic refugees.

Another pandemic requiring a shut down and isolation.

A failure of the cell and satellite systems, cutting off communications.

A massive cyber attack.

A meltdown of a nuclear facility.

The collapse of an essential natural system, such as the global hydrological system.

Nuclear war far enough away to theoretically survive. If you are in a strike zone the point is moot.

A failure of our already stressed heath care system.

A collapse of currency requiring an alternative means of exchange and a workable barter system.

What Will We Lack?

Think about what happened in the way of resource distribution during the first weeks and months of the Covid Pandemic.

The hoarding. The problems getting basic like toilet paper. In that case hoarding was the biggest issue. There was SOME supply, it just wasn’t moving well to distribution points.

There was meat, even if there wasn’t every kind. There were canned goods, just maybe not what you wanted. The food industries were deemed “essential”.

Now, imagine the Safeway or Albertsons truck is simply not coming. There is NO outside supply.

What happens next?

Think about the things that piss you off right now. Bad service from shipping companies. Internet down. Cell service interrupted. Not being able to stream shows. The store being out of that thing you are craving….

All that will be gone.

Now think about how you might cope with having to find clean water or live on one or two food items for weeks.

What would change? What would need to change?

What is the Level of the Danger?

First, will you have to leave the premises or the area as a whole? For how long?

If the departure is permanent what is the destination?

If you must leave a bug out bag and a car will be required. The car will need fuel or charge. And money of some kind.

To understand the problem it is necessary to grasp the difference between a want and a need.

What Do We Really Need?

The first thing people do when confronted by the polycrisis is an assessment of what they might need. But that may be more complex than it looks.

Here is a list of our true needs. Which of these may pose a problem depends on what harm is in play.

Air

The first need for a human being (and most other life forms as well) is breathable air. This may seem like a no-brainer, and not worth thinking about, but if you live in a very polluted area it’s not so simple. Or, if you live in a very dusty or damp place your indoor air supply may be compromised.

Fires compromise air quality, as do spills and airborne diseases. Will we have enough masks? Any other ways to clean the air?

Water

The next basic need is water, for drinking, cooking, and hygiene. In most of the United States we take this need for granted, but we really shouldn’t. Water is a limited resource. The USA still has one of the best water systems in the world. But will that continue? There are already a number of places with poor access.

Food

For us, and for our animals. This is one of the first things any of us think of. But how many have any way to replenish the pantry when it is depleted? And how will we feed cats, dogs, or livestock?

Animal Companions

We need them too. Yes, we have to feed them. They also feed us, protect us, keep pests in check, and keep us centered as humans.

Clothes

This is a complex need in our society. The basic stuff it takes to cover your body is not really an issue. This can be met very inexpensively by going to clothing swaps and your local Goodwill. If you buy sturdy fabrics they will last. But, because clothes are also a social marker that let other people know how we are to be treated, you may have legitimate clothing needs that can’t always be met this way. What are you likely to need if the wheels fall off? The answer is not 5 inch heels.

Shelter

Even animals all have some kind of nest or den. And so do we.

In a place like the United States that accepts homelessness as a simple byproduct of the economy that might be a hard sell. This is shortsighted and misses a basic point: the homelessness problem was one of the first harbingers of collapse in this country.

Being exposed to the elements is deadly and more so in the case of natural disasters.

Defensive Weapons

This is a sad fact. Disasters bring out our best— and our worst. My policy will be to welcome any who come in peace.

And dispatch any who do not.

Energy

This once meant fire, for heat and light. But in today’s world, it means some kind of power source ranging from pure solar to an energy company hook-up.

What happens if the grid goes down, for a few days, a few weeks, or forever?

How will we stay warm or cool? How will we access our wells and cisterns for running water? How will we cook or see at night? Is there a secondary system? What inputs does it rely upon?

Community

We will need a community and a social circle. The community consists of people who are local to you even if you don’t hang out with them. The social circle are the people you choose to hang out with.

Both are important. We are a social species, like all herd and pack species. We can be either. But we must interact with our kind and form bonds of trust and protection.

This is why the identity movement poses a problem. “Identity politics” involves superiority, purity, and rejection. And we need all hands on deck. If you are with those of us who see the collapse coming, lay the blame with predatory capitalism and oligarchy, and are willing to help our species survive, I don’t really need to know more. The things that make you—YOU are important but our survival transcends those differences.

I don’t need to like you to treat you as a team member.

I lived for years at the edge of a flood zone. Across the road was a dairy farm, run by the Aggios. My neighbors and I disagreed on politics as was evidenced by our signs on election years. Let’s say they cancelled each other out. They were as far to the right as I am to the left.

Were they racist? Homophobic? I have no idea. What I am certain of is this: if the flood waters came up enough to reach either of us, both would be helping sand bag. I have no doubt they would be there for my household just as there is no doubt I would do the same for them.

And that is what we need if any of us are going to make it. It’s all hands on deck, and I don’t have to personally like you. Or you, me. This is a war and if you are on my side I have your back. Mine is the side that wants to see humanity survive. And an end to the ecocide that will kill us and everything else that lives.

Transportation

If you are lucky you live in a place that has a high walkability index and that place is stable enough that leaving is not a concern.

In that case, need satisfied, for the most part, though you may need to supplement your walking from time to time. But if you anyplace else, this is going to be right after shelter and food in terms of importance in a crisis.

If there is an evacuation at this point we all need some form of motor vehicle. Will there be fuel?

Communication

This wouldn’t have made the list a hundred and twenty five years ago. It would still have been a need, but as with air, no one would have thought about it much. All you had to do was talk to people you actually saw, and write letters (the snail kind) to people you didn’t see. Then came the telegraph, which was just a faster letter. All of this was either free of charge (as in conversation) or very inexpensive. But also very slow.

Today, we all “need” devices of one kind or another to keep us looped in 24 hours a day.

Though face to face conversation is still free, if you want to be part of the world, or the world of work, you need e-mail and a phone connection of some kind.

What happens when the cell and satellite systems fail, by act of war or act of nature?

Medical Care

Though there are millions of people not getting this need met, it is still a basic human need.

Millions rely on pharmaceuticals to live. And many need surgery every year. To say nothing of injuries and disease.

What do we do for medical care if there is a widespread or localized collapse? We got a taste of this during the first part of the pandemic. There were deaths due to lack of care for non-Covid disease and injuries.

Education

All creatures educate their young. We need to do the same if we are to continue to survive.

In a collapse formal education would be spotty or nonexistent. What takes its place?

Meaning

As culture bearing and meaning bearing animals, we also NEED something bigger than ourselves. It could be a spiritual orientation. It could also be an entertainment. Music. Art. Writing. Helping others. Making things. Our hearts and minds need engagement. And each of these builds community and helps us relate to others and the world. To make sense of an uncertain reality. We need this to cope and to thrive.

What Should We Do

At this point it is impossible to be entirely safe. There is only playing the odds.

This must be split in two sections

Personal Strategies

This includes things like bug out bags, fat pantries, knowing where you will go if relocation is necessary and other personal and family plans.

Know your needs and have various ways to satisfy them.

A corollary to that is doing as much to mitigate the damage we do on a personal basis.

This has been a long argument in sustainability circles- whose responsibility is it? It is, of course, the responsibility of the society to mitigate and stop the harm. But that does not give us a free pass as individuals.

Many of the things we can do personally, such as limiting consumption and building our own sustainable systems and economies are, by happy chance, the same tactics that will help us be prepared when the crisis comes.

Things like conservation of water and growing food. Things like having a barter system in place and knowing our neighbors.

Community and Social Solutions

This is where the rubber hits the pavement. We will not survive collectively with out collective solutions. Some of these already exist but have languished in the malevolent air of late capitalism. Local food. Large scale community gardens. Civic permaculture installations.

There are reams of ink, recorded material, and even podcasts on what we should be doing. I can’t cover it all here. It is not just one book, it is a library. Not just a course, but an advanced degree. I hope everyone will search these materials out and then demand implementation.

We already know how to fix many aspects of the polycrisis. But will have to battle the oligarchs to have any of these programs implemented.

Other strategies have not come into being yet. Some are not even known yet. Ideas that haven’t are not yet conceived.

Each of the needs mentioned above must be addressed on the community level.

The future is partially set in cement. But that cement is still wet. We can’t do as much as we could have if we had pushed hard 50 years ago or 30 or even 20. Some may think the tipping point for our inevitable extinction has already passed. But they do not know that.

It is an understandable psychological coping mechanism— embracing the worst possible scenario. This does not make it true. And is almost certainly counter productive.

Mirage 

One day, about 20 years ago, I was sitting on a bench outside the Peet's Coffee on 4th street in Santa Rosa, CA.

The weather was warm, a slight breeze and as I sat and looked out at the cars passing by on the street I started to drift. After awhile the sound of the cars turned to a hum, and I realised I was seeing a mirage. A very powerful mirage.

Why? Because the fact that I grew up with "modern conveniences" (and so did everyone I knew and probably almost everyone still living, at least in the "developed" world), didn't mean anything in terms of the future.

Cars, as they exist, can't continue. The way we get from here to there can't continue. The electricity we use to run every part of our lives is simply unsustainable as it exists. So, that street and the ones around it, and the freeways they feed into--all a mirage.

How we handle the passing away of this mirage will determine the future of our species and all the rest of life on earth.

As bleak as it looks now, that is still worth fighting for.

If you don’t care about this subject at all, for whatever reason, then this is not the post for you. But if you have thought about it or are willing to think about it even if you never have before, please do comment.